Sunday, February 08, 2004

The dog is begining to wag the tail

This Reuters article about the sluggish job picture states what has probably been felt for months, that the continued absence of jobs may drag the other components of the recovery down, in particular consumer spending. As people lose faith in the security of jobs, they tighten their belts, with the result that instead of continuing to run up credit card debt, they cut expenditures and hence demand.
An unstated fear is deflation: the awful prospect of sustained price decline due to lack of demand, which becomes a vicious circle as layoffs then feed the lack of spending by consumers. With the number of personal bankruptcies at record levels, there's nowhere for the consumer to go but cutting back on expenditures. This economy may indeed be in for a long, hard slog.

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