Sgt. 1st Class Richard S. Gottfried, 42, of Lake Ozark, Mo

Pfc. Matthew G. Milczark, 18, of Kettle River, Minn

Capt. Gussie M. Jones, 41, of Louisiana

Petty Officer 2nd Class Michael J. Gray, 32, of Richmond, Va.

More than October surprises

There could be many surprises, not just the dropping of Cheney, which I predicted a year ago. The capture of bin Laden, the trial of Saddam Hussein, a rebound of jobs, a series of Congressional hearings into 9/11, into Valerie Plame, into prewar intelligence. So much to resolve, swinging one way and another. It's hard to keep abreast of it all, but I enjoy the effort.

If it weren't so sad...

It would be hilarious, watching Bush address the faithful in Ohio, where thousands of manufacturing jobs have been lost. His suggestion: that they fill the vacancies in the professions of nursing and pharmacy.

Let's see--that might take a bit of training, right? Three or four years of full-time school? And so of course he says how stoked he is on education, in support of which he offers the "No-Child-Left-Behind" Act. Even Bush couldn't keep a straight face.

What recovery?

Both the Dow and Nasdaq are down for the year 2004, the foreign trade deficit is at a record high level, the dollar is weakening against the euro, the federal deficit is larger than ever in US history, the price of gasoline is at a record high level and both jobs and household income are dwindling. All this is taking place when the cost of borrowing is at its lowest in history.

With the price of oil soon to reach $40 per barrel, inflation will rear its head. The fed will have to increase the prime rate to stave it off (or else lose the ability to borrow), which will increase the cost of debt service by both corporations and individuals, both of which have been borrowing at record levels because of the low rates.
It is said that the Fed won't dare raise interest rates before the November election fearing that doing so would trigger a dip in the "recovery" of businesses by lowering their profits. I think, however, that Greenspan is so wedded to his numbers that he'd hike the Fed rate regardless of the impact on Bush's re-election. He's served under both Democrat and Republican administrations and will act to keep inflation (his biggest enemy) under control, at all events.
My prognosis, for what it's worth, is that this summer's going to be a wild ride.

P.S. Just to show how "fair and balanced" this blog is, check out this sanguine report about the US economy.

P.P.S. And as to the question whether the decline in manufacturing in the US is due to decreased American consumer demand or increased imports of foreign manufactured goods, check out this article, which clearly shows that the latter is the case, meaning that the loss of US manufacturing isn't just a blip but a systemic phenomenon. Looks like we'll be the money-changers, the insurers, the lawyers, the burger-flippers to the world in the upcoming century.

blowin' in the wind

I've added an item to our gutter on the left of this page, "blowin' in the wind." It's the updated cost of the Iraq war, in human casualties. The current number of US dead is 555. I don't think we'll ever be able to imagine the magnitude of human loss. The subject line, as you probably know, is from a song by Bob Dylan that we used to sing as kids.

...Yes, 'n' how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, 'n' how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

The trouble with blogging

Is that it's likely no one is reading all this wisdom, especially when the wisdom might be useful. For example, I love the images of Kerry dressed in a work shirt, punching the air, while Bush is clad in suits, addressing stuff-suited donors. Somehow, even though Kerry's a patrician (Bush, whatever his credentials, isn't), he looks appropriate in informal gear, while Bush always appears strained and stilted in his cowboy garb.
Another observation: Kerry should address, in his ads and speeches, Bush/Cheney, not just Bush alone. Cheney's a drag on Bush, a wild-card weirdo, and the more Kerry can drag him into the fray the better.
I have other insights, hoping against hope that someone will hearken to them. Like my chant: "Hey, hey, USA, How many soldiers died today?" Or Kyle's: "On November 2, Dis--Appoint Bush/Cheney".
Good stuff, eh?

Fun reading

This National Review article, while conceding that Kerry has pulled ahead of Bush in the polls, cites a Gallup poll showing that people believe Kerry's ads are more unfair than Bush's.

So? Apparently it's working.

Boy Genius

The Guardian Unlimited answers the question: Who is Karl Rove? ... A look at the gunslinger's #1 sidekick.

Support for Bush Falls

I'm tired. It's been a long day and I feel like I might be coming down with a cold. So I'm going to take a small consolation that I'm not such a warmongering boob that my numbers are falling in an WaPo-ABC poll. I go to bed hopeful that this trend means we may someday get our country back.
Yahoo! News - Support for Bush Falls On Economy and Iraq

Ugly jobs picture

A contraction of the labor force--a phenomenon not seen for seventy years. How can we make the voters understand this?

So what do we do now

That Iran wants to join the nuclear club. We've ignored Israel's nukes, we've got allies (UK, France) and buddies (Russia) and unknowns (Pakistan, India) with nukes. And enemies, too (China). So why shouldn't Iran demand entry? Especially since we've never demanded that Israel disclose its arsenal.

Another reason to oust Bush

It's the judges, stupid.

If ever there was an authority on our economy...

Warren Buffet is that person. And what he says isn't comforting.

The birds

Recall the role of the canary in the coal mine? Well, now we learn that one sixth of the world's species of birds are critically near extinction. Time to stop mining.

Bush, Blair Blixed

Boy, this Blix guy is really a loose canon on the deck of The USS Bring'emon. I can't believe nobody's convinced him to shut up in the interest of national security, but I'm glad he's still talking. You tell 'em Blixy!

Yahoo! News - Bush, Blair Knew They Were Hyping Case for War-Blix

Jobless and hopeless

The number of long-term unemployed is at a twenty-year high, which explains why the unemployment figure of 5.6% remains constant even though workers are entering the labor force at the rate of 150,000 per month while only 21,000 new jobs were created last month. The longer-term unemployed are simply giving up on finding jobs and hence are lost to the number-crunchers. Meanwhile, the Republican Congress has denied to these masses of workers an extension of their unemployment benefits.
Remember those Republicans? Those compassionate conservatives?

Guantanamo east

The US (that's us, guys) is holding 10,000 Iraqis in detention. No trials, no lawyers, just holding them under its occupation authority. What happens when that authority ends?