Tuesday, October 14, 2003

I smell a rat at AOL News

This headline and story clearly indicate that Bush has experienced a huge -- 10 points or more -- jump in his approval ratings lately, that he's "rebounded" to 56% approval per a CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll from "around 44 percent." Other indications (plus the "frame" of the story, see my post immediately below about "framing" a news story) were that he was doing fine in his numbers.

These observations didn't square with other polls, and I couldn't find such conclusions on the websites of any of the three sponsors of the poll, so I located the poll results here.

As is clear, there is no such rebound. Bush's job approval rating actually dropped 4 points, from 60 to 56 since the last poll in August, his "deserves to be elected" percent dropped 10 points, from 62 to 52, since the last poll a year ago, and his "will definitely vote against him" percent increased from 35 to 38, and is now larger than his "will definitely vote for" percent (35).

Furthermore, Bush's job approval ratings have never "hovered around 44 percent." According to Polkatz's colorful chart, 56 percent is just about where the average of all Bush's polls are presently.

Question 1: Who wrote that AOL News story? It's not just biased, it's patently false.
Question 2: Why am I surprised?

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